MATHEMATICS MODEL OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OF THE QUANTITATIVE FEATURES PARKA COACH

Senko W.I., Doctor of Technical Sciences; Belarusian State University of Transport; Gomel, the Republic of Belarus

Gurskiy E.P., Candidate of Technical Sciences; Belarusian State University of Transport; Gomel, the Republic of Belarus

Considered urgency and practical value given problems. It is shown need of the account much factorial, correlation of the nature of the process of the shaping required amount parka coach. The organized selection factor, are determined and explored factors, by means of which is fixed their influence upon worker park. The executed categorization factor on value of their influence. It is designed mathematics model of the long-term forecast of the quantitative features parka coach and are received design values to number of the rolling stock on given forecasting time-frame. The results of the study were taken into account and used at development of the business plan of the Belorussian railway before 2010, realization which will allow to raise efficiency of the use the cargo rolling stock and the whole infrastructures, providing its operation.

Parka coach, long-term forecast, Belorussian railway, cargo rolling stock

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